Although DFO has justified the increase by pointing to improvement in the stock status, the apparent improvement is not due to population growth but rather to the fact that DFO changed the stock’s Limit Reference Point (LRP)—the point below which a stock is said to be in the “critical zone” and where fishing should be kept to the lowest level possible. While this change was based on additional data, it has also created a misleading sense that the stock is increasing.

In fact, the stock has shown no growth since 2017 and as recently as 2023 it was assessed to be in the critical zone, meaning it required a formal rebuilding plan. The decision to increase fishing pressure despite these facts contradicts the precautionary approach, which is supposed to underpin DFO’s fisheries management decisions. Stock projections presented during the 2025 assessment show a 56 to 71 percent probability that the stock will decline by 2028 even if fishing levels remain the same, and this risk grows with increased removals.

Additionally, the ecosystem conditions that influence Northern cod productivity continue to be unfavourable: capelin, a primary prey species, is expected to decline in 2025, and natural mortality remains high. DFO also announced today that the quota for capelin would be maintained at 14,533 metric tonnes—15 percent higher than Oceans North had advised given capelin’s importance to cod and the ecosystem as a whole. These environmental constraints limit the stock’s ability to recover even in the absence of additional fishing pressure.

Beyond the need for caution, Oceans North is concerned about potential flaws in the assumptions underlying the assessment model. The latest stock assessment shows evidence of retrospective patterns, where estimates of key indicators such as spawning stock biomass consistently change when new data are added. This suggests there may be some structural issues in the model, possibly linked to assumptions about natural mortality, recruitment, or fishing selectivity.

The outcome of these retrospective patterns has been a downward shift in the LRP for Northern cod. This shift does not reflect a true improvement in the stock, but rather a change in how the model interprets the same data over time. As a result, the critical zone will continue to shrink each year, making it increasingly difficult to track true changes in stock health and assess risk. These inconsistencies highlight the need for ongoing model evaluation and transparency to ensure management decisions are grounded in the best available science.