The concern revolves around changes to the Upper Stock Reference (USR) point, one of the benchmarks in Canada’s Precautionary Approach Framework for fisheries.

Broadly speaking, fish stocks in Canada are sorted into three zones based on their health: the critical zone, the cautious zone, and the healthy zone. DFO is supposed to manage stocks differently depending on what zone they are in. For example, fishing should be minimized when a stock is in the critical zone, whereas a healthy stock can be fished more. The goal is to keep the stock at its most productive level, which is typically measured in tonnes (the spawning stock biomass, or SSB) and referred to as biomass at maximum sustainable yield (BMSY).

The Limit Reference Point (LRP) is the boundary between the critical and cautious zone. If a stock falls below the LRP it is considered to be in the critical zone, where serious harm is occurring. The Northern cod stock was in the critical zone for over 30 years following its collapse in the 1990s, until the assessment model was updated in 2023 and it was recategorized to the cautious zone.

The USR is the boundary between the cautious and healthy zone. Stocks above the USR are considered to be healthy and sustainable. However, while the LRP is strictly set on the basis of science, the USR is set by management and is open to influence by industry needs.

DFO’s new decision sets the USR for Northern cod at 80 percent of BMSY. For comparison, that is 270 kilotonnes under what the LRP was just a few years ago. That means numbers that were recently cause for concern are, under the new framework, cause for celebration.

Meanwhile, the population is not growing and ecosystem conditions remain unfavourable: capelin, Northern cod’s primary prey species, is expected to decline, while natural mortality remains high and increased ocean temperatures are known to impact cod population recovery. These constraints mean the stock cannot be considered “healthy” in ecological terms.