
Species on the Move: Range Shift in Canada’s Protected Areas
Species on the Move: Range Shift in Canada’s Protected Areas
Elisabeth Hadjis | February 11, 2026
As climate change alters ocean conditions, a growing number of tropical species have been spotted in Canadian waters. What does their presence here mean for the ecosystems they’re entering—and for the ones they’ve left behind? Insights from Oceans North’s Amy Irvine and Melissa Labrador could offer some clues.
Along Nova Scotia’s south shore—in the district of Kespukwitk, part of the traditional land of the Mi’kmaq—lies an ecosystem where Atlantic waters, white sandy beaches and lush greenery meet. Known as the Pemsɨk Mawa’tasikl Anko’tmu’kl or the Pemsɨk Conservation Mosaic, this region is also the heart of a recently proposed protected area co-led by the district’s two Mi’kmaq communities.
Covering more than 5200 square kilometres of both land and sea, the Pemsɨk project is a collaborative vision which brings existing conservation initiatives together while addressing gaps in the marine and terrestrial protection of the area. It combines archeological and scientific evidence with traditional knowledge, gathered over generations by Mi’kmaq oral history.
Melissa Labrador is the senior L’nu advisor on conservation and climate change at Oceans North, as well as a Mi’kmaq land and water guardian who has been spearheading the Pemsɨk initiative. Since time immemorial, the region has provided her people with food, economic opportunity and more. Today, however, this way of life is at risk: changes in ocean conditions are shifting the balance of the ecosystem, bringing unlikely species to Pemsɨk waters.
Surveys conducted by Melissa’s team in the summer of 2025 revealed the presence of several tropical fish, such as the spotfin butterflyfish, which is usually found in the warm, shallow waters of the Caribbean Sea. However, over the past decade, these fish have been observed in more northern parts of the western Atlantic, including in the waters off Nova Scotia. Whether they’re here to stay is unknown, but the presence of these warm-water dwellers in Pemsɨk could point to a worrisome trend.
“In the early spring, we’ll go back to these sites,” Melissa says. “If they are still there, then we are clearly at a point in time where conditions are favourable for these tropical species to survive in North Atlantic waters, which is not what we want to see.”
The long-term presence of these species in new areas could indicate a range shift, which happens when a species’ typical habitat range is altered in response to warming waters, changes in acidity or other climate-driven impacts. Many animals, such as the American lobster, are responding by extending the boundaries of their habitat and migrating north in search of more temperate waters. Others, scientists say, are seeking new habitats entirely, leaving their old homes behind for good.
“Species will have to find new habitats that are still within their range of tolerance,” says Amy Irvine, Oceans North’s climate advisor. “They have to expand their range, or they might become extirpated, meaning they can no longer live in a certain area at all.”
This is a global occurrence, Amy notes, and it looks different for each species. But how does the ecosystem change once these species arrive, and what happens to the habitats they’ve left behind?
“If an entirely new species comes in, it can really challenge how resources are shared in the environment,” Amy says. “It’s going to have some level of disturbance on the rest of the ecosystem that is there.”
To better understand and quantify this impact, Amy and a team of collaborators developed the Climate Ecological Disruption Index, or CEDI, which was published in Conservation Letters in August 2025.
CEDI measures the risk of disruption caused by range shifts on ocean ecosystems by breaking species down to their function in the ecosystem and determining how that changes as they move. It does so by integrating species distribution models, which projects what species are expected to be present in the ecosystem, with functional traits—variables grouped into categories like body size, diet or habitat.
“For example, you might have a small fish like capelin that is relocating to another area. Say a mackerel population replaces it and has a similar function; that might not disturb how the ecosystem exists.” Amy says. “But then, a whole new species of whale might come in and cause some sort of disturbance to predator-prey interactions and how the ecosystem is working.”
In the study, Amy and her co-authors applied this metric to a plan for a network of marine protected areas on Canada’s east coast—Pemsɨk included—focusing on which species were coming, going, and remaining the same in each location. Using data from over 18,000 species globally and focusing on the species within this network, they found that in some protected areas, about one third of the ecosystem could be disrupted through range shifts by 2050.
CEDI, the researchers hope, could help marine managers plan for climate change by understanding how species will move in the future, as well as how they will bring different functions to each ecosystem. In practice, this could inform ecological risk assessments, support fisheries management planning, and identify areas that are particularly vulnerable or resilient to climate change impacts.

Image – CEDI connects projections of climate-driven species redistributions to ecosystem functioning consequences, evaluating the loss and gain of ecological roles played by different species when this redistribution occurs. In this example, three species are emigrating the ecosystem and one immigrating; only one ecological function is lost, and one gained.
Since publishing the paper, Amy and her co-authors have presented CEDI to organizations across Canada who might be interested in using the metric for both the monitoring of new species and assessing climate impacts. Currently, federal government departments are considering the metric as a potential tool for supporting the management of protected areas in changing environments.
The long-term impact of range shifts isn’t clear to scientists yet, Amy says, but resources like CEDI can help us prepare for when these changes may occur and where they could be most extreme. Until then, traditional ecological knowledge from Indigenous communities continues to illustrate climate-driven biodiversity changes occurring at the ecosystem level. In the Pemsɨk conservation area, observations recorded by land stewards over generations tell the story of an environment that is rapidly changing. Combining Western science tools CEDI with this Indigenous-led data is an important step to protecting these places for those who rely on them.
“We’ve been saying for the last 50-plus years that things are changing to the point that we’re not going back to what we knew,” Melissa says. “Now, people and scientists are really catching up to what we’ve been saying for so long.”

Image – The kelp forests of the Kejimkujik Seaside—an area which falls within the borders of the Pemsik Conservation Mosaic—are a key part of the region’s unique ecosystems. | Photo by Nick Hawkins





